Housing + Replacement Parking = Good, Bad, or Ugly?
Let’s assume there is replacement parking for the businesses. (We’ll put aside when it would be built, or how it would be paid for.) With replacement parking, wouldn’t the density from this “downtown development” be good for business?
No, it would be bad:
1 - PARKING GARAGES ARE BARRIERS TO OUR COMMUNITY
When running errands, people often need to push a shopping cart, tow a child, carry items they just purchased, etc. And some people will have health issues that reduce mobility. We cannot expect these members of our community to contend with multi-level parking structures located up to a block away. (Good luck finding an outdoor space next to your grocery store.)
Locals will be compelled to instead drive to a strip mall or shop online.
And if someone was thinking about stopping for a quick coffee - they just won’t.
2 - IT’S THE WRONG KIND OF DENISTY
Increasing density is good for businesses. But businesses do not care about the number of people within X miles. They care about the number of people within X minutes.
According to the 2022 Menlo Park Downtown Market Study (page 5), our downtown’s “trade area” is the daytime population within a 20 minute drive of downtown - about 370,000 people.
However, housing in the parking lots will increase total transit time because:
1. There will be more traffic congestion.
2. It will take longer to find parking because you must deal with a garage (and any tolls) or compete for a space in a prized outdoor lot.
3. The parking space will be farther away, with a longer walk to the destination.
All told, it’s fair to expect a 5 minute delay.
So, for someone to be within the 20 minute range, they must now be within a 15 minute drive, not 20.
We can use app.traveltime.com to see what losing 5 minutes looks like:
That’s a reduction in our downtown’s trade area by about 150,000 people.
What about businesses that can only draw people from 15 minutes away? For them, the range shrinks from 15 to 10 minutes:
Over half the market is lost because of that 5 minutes.
THE RESULT
Housing in the parking lots would add some potential customers (just as it would if the housing was in the Civic Center).
But the subsequent inaccessibility for everyone else would dramatically shrink the overall customer base. So even with replacement parking, we would lose businesses - along with the services, jobs, and sales tax revenue they provide.
It would be ugly.